ember

7Calibration

A reliability diagram plots each confidence bin's accuracy against its mean confidence; a perfectly calibrated advisor sits on the diagonal [11]. Bars above the diagonal mean ember was more often right than its confidence claimed (under-confidence); bars below it mean over-confidence, the dangerous direction for threshold-driven agents.

Reliability of choice answersAccuracy bars per confidence bin against the diagonal of perfect calibration.accuracymean confidenceperfect calibration0.00.00.20.20.40.40.60.60.80.81.01.0Top-label confidenceAccuracyn=10n=18n=26n=27n=41n=85n=182ECE 0.073 MCE 0.174
Figure 6 Reliability of choice answers (389 questions). Coral lines mark each bin's mean confidence; shading below a line marks over-confidence.
Reliability of noul answersAccuracy bars per confidence bin against the diagonal of perfect calibration.accuracymean confidenceperfect calibration0.00.00.20.20.40.40.60.60.80.81.01.0Top-label confidenceAccuracyn=80n=85n=129n=196n=542ECE 0.028 MCE 0.072
Figure 7 Reliability of noul answers (1032 questions). Coral lines mark each bin's mean confidence; shading below a line marks over-confidence.
TypeNMean confidenceAccuracyAccuracy minus confidenceECEMCEBrier
choice3890.82289.5%+0.073 (under-confident)0.0730.1740.174
noul10320.85783.4%-0.022 (close)0.0280.0720.115